GTA Real Estate Market Trends
Clear numbers, local insight.
Headlines about the GTA housing market can be confusing and often contradict each other. This page cuts through the noise with the latest numbers, what they actually mean and how they apply to Oakville, Mississauga, Milton and Burlington.
Tarlika Sehgal, REALTOR®, SRS, ABR
eXp Realty Of Canada, Inc., Brokerage
GTA market snapshot: September 2026
The latest numbers from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB), released October 6, 2026.
Sources: TRREB Market Watch (September 2026) and the Bank of Canada. Snapshot updated October 2026.
What the numbers mean right now
Supply is still the story. In September, new listings fell 14.4% from a year ago while sales fell 9%, so buyers have less choice than they did last year in many neighbourhoods. Prices remain below last year's levels, with the average price and the benchmark both down about 5%. TRREB says there is substantial pent-up demand in the GTA, and that buyers are waiting for more confidence in jobs and the economy before they act.
For buyers
Prices remain lower than a year ago and borrowing costs have been steady, but well-priced homes can attract more competition when listings are scarce. Get pre-approved so you can act quickly when the right home appears.
For sellers
Fewer competing listings can work in your favour, especially for homes that are priced well and show well. Pricing to today's market, not last year's numbers, still matters.
For downsizers
Look at both sides of the market: how quickly homes like yours are selling and how much choice you have in the type of home you want next. That tells you whether to sell first or buy first.
What brings you here?
Start with the option that sounds most like you.
GTA West market notes
GTA-wide averages hide big local differences. Here is what tends to drive each of the four markets I work in most.
Oakville
Detached homes make up a large share of sales, so average prices typically run well above the GTA average. School catchments, lake proximity and lot size have a big effect on value.
Mississauga
A large condo market around City Centre sits alongside established neighbourhoods like Lorne Park and Mineola, so trends can differ sharply by property type.
Milton
Newer freehold townhomes and detached homes attract young families and move-up buyers. Commute options and new construction supply shape the market.
Burlington
Lakefront and established neighbourhoods south of the QEW contrast with newer communities to the north. Access to the Lakeshore West GO line draws commuters.
Want this month's numbers for your neighbourhood? Ask for a free local market report.
How to read market numbers
A few key measures tell you far more than a headline price.
Average selling price
The total value of homes sold divided by the number of sales. It can jump around when more expensive or less expensive homes happen to sell in a given month.
MLS® HPI benchmark
Tracks the price of a typical home with consistent features over time. It is a steadier way to see whether values are really rising or falling.
Sales-to-new-listings ratio
Sales divided by new listings. Generally, below 40% points to a buyer's market, 40% to 60% is balanced and above 60% favours sellers.
Months of inventory
How long it would take to sell every active listing at the current pace of sales. Fewer months means a tighter market for buyers.
Days on market
How long homes take to sell. Shorter times usually mean stronger demand.
Sale-to-list price ratio
The selling price compared to the asking price. Above 100% means homes are selling over asking on average.
Why averages can mislead: if more condos sell one month and more detached homes the next, the average price can swing even when values have barely moved. That is why I look at the benchmark and at your specific neighbourhood and home type.
Get a market report for your neighbourhood
GTA numbers are a starting point. I can prepare a report on recent sales, active listings and pricing trends for your street, your building or the area you want to move to.
Why work with Tarlika
Good decisions come from good information, explained clearly. I translate market data into plain advice about pricing, timing and negotiation for your situation.
I am a REALTOR® and TRREB member with the Seller Representative Specialist (SRS) and Accredited Buyer's Representative (ABR) designations, so I read the market from both sides of the table.
Before real estate, I spent more than 25 years in business, including work with financial institutions and in IT. That background shapes how I analyze numbers and spot what matters.
What you get
Helpful resources
Moving from Toronto
What the move to GTA West looks like, from taxes to commutes.
Frequently asked questions
Is now a good time to buy a home in the GTA?
It depends on your finances, your timeline and your neighbourhood more than the headlines. Look at prices, inventory and borrowing costs together, and compare them for the specific area and home type you want. A local market report and a mortgage pre-approval will tell you more than any GTA-wide number.
Is now a good time to sell?
When fewer homes are listed, well-priced homes can attract more buyers and stronger offers. The key is pricing to today's market. A home evaluation based on recent nearby sales shows where your home stands.
Why are average prices and benchmark prices different?
The average price changes with the mix of homes that sold that month. The MLS® HPI benchmark tracks a typical home with consistent features, so it is a steadier signal of whether values are really moving.
What is a balanced market?
A market where neither buyers nor sellers have a clear advantage. One common measure is the sales-to-new-listings ratio, where roughly 40% to 60% is generally considered balanced.
How do interest rates affect GTA home prices?
When the Bank of Canada changes its policy rate, lender prime rates and variable mortgage rates usually move with it. Lower borrowing costs tend to bring more buyers into the market, which can support prices, while higher rates can cool demand.
How often is this page updated?
I update the market snapshot each month after TRREB releases its numbers, usually early in the month.
Want to know what the market means for you?
No pressure and no obligation. Just clear numbers and honest advice.
Tarlika Sehgal, REALTOR®, SRS, ABR
eXp Realty Of Canada, Inc., Brokerage
Market statistics are based on TRREB MLS® data and Bank of Canada announcements and are provided for general information only. They are not a guarantee of future values or an appraisal of any property. Not intended to solicit buyers or sellers currently under contract with a brokerage.