Bank of Canada October 28 Decision: What It Means for GTA Homeowners and Buyers
On Wednesday, October 28, 2026 at 9:45 a.m. Eastern, the Bank of Canada announces its next interest rate decision along with a new Monetary Policy Report. If you are buying, selling, renewing a mortgage or planning a downsize anywhere in the Greater Toronto Area, this post explains what a hold or a hike would actually change for you, and what it would not.
The short answer
The decision mainly affects variable-rate mortgages and home equity lines of credit, because lenders tie their prime rate to the Bank of Canada's policy rate. A 0.25% change typically means a modest shift in monthly costs, not a dramatic one. Fixed rates follow the bond market more than this announcement. For most GTA households, the bigger decisions are still your budget, your timing and the home itself.
Where rates stand going into October 28
The Bank of Canada's policy rate has been 2.25% since October 29, 2025. The Bank held it there at seven straight decisions, most recently on September 2, 2026.
What has changed is inflation. Statistics Canada reported that consumer prices rose 3.1% year over year in September 2026, mostly because of higher fuel costs. Excluding gasoline, inflation was 2.2%. That gap is exactly what the Bank is weighing: is this a temporary energy spike, or the start of broader price pressure?
Forecasters are split. In a Reuters poll taken October 21 to 23, a small majority of economists (19 of 34) expected a 0.25% increase to 2.50%, while others expected a hold because of a softer economy. No one knows the outcome until the announcement, so it makes sense to plan for both.
What a hold or a hike means for your mortgage
If you have a variable rate or a HELOC
This is where the decision shows up first. If the Bank holds, nothing changes. If it raises its rate by 0.25%, lenders usually raise prime by the same amount within days.
As a simple illustration: on a $500,000 mortgage with a 25-year amortization, moving from a 3.95% rate to 4.20% adds roughly $68 a month. Your own number depends on your balance, your lender and whether your payment adjusts or stays fixed while more of it goes to interest.
If you have a fixed rate
Your payment does not change until renewal. Fixed rates are driven mostly by government bond yields, which react to inflation expectations ahead of the Bank. If you renew in the next 12 months, ask your lender or mortgage professional about an early renewal or a rate hold so you know your options before you need them.
If you are pre-approved and shopping
Check how long your rate hold lasts and whether a variable pre-approval would be recalculated after a change in prime. A small increase can trim your maximum purchase price slightly, so build a little room into your budget rather than shopping at the very top of your approval.
What it means for the GTA housing market
One rate decision rarely moves local prices on its own. Buyer confidence, inventory and the broader economy matter just as much. For context, TRREB reported 5,040 home sales across its market area in September 2026, down 9% from a year earlier, with an average price of $1,006,409 compared with $1,060,036 in September 2025. New listings were also down 14.4% year over year.
In practical terms, that is a market where many buyers are being careful and sellers need sharp pricing. A hold could help confidence heading into winter. A hike could keep some buyers on the sidelines a little longer, which can mean less competition for those who are ready.
Five practical steps before and after the announcement
- Know your mortgage type and renewal date. Variable, fixed, adjustable payment or HELOC each respond differently.
- Run your numbers at a slightly higher rate. If a 0.25% or 0.50% increase would strain your budget, adjust your price range now.
- Confirm your pre-approval details. Ask how long the rate hold lasts and what happens if prime moves.
- Sellers, price for today's buyer. Buyers are payment-sensitive, so a realistic list price matters more than the headline rate.
- Downsizers, look at the full picture. If you plan to buy with little or no mortgage, rates affect your buyer pool more than your own costs.
If you are not sure what your home is worth in this market, start with a free home value review. Buying for the first time? My first-time home buyer page and Free Buyer's Guide walk through the process step by step. Planning a move to something smaller? See my senior downsizing page. Ready for more space? Read about upsizing your home in the GTA.
The bottom line
October 28 is worth watching, but it is one input, not the whole plan. A 0.25% move in either direction is manageable for most well-prepared buyers and owners. The next scheduled decision is December 9, 2026. The best protection is a clear budget, a lender who explains your options and a plan built around your goals.
Wondering what the rate news means for your move?
Book a no-pressure call and we will look at your timing, budget and options anywhere in the GTA.
Book a Call with TarlikaTarlika Sehgal, REALTOR®, SRS®, ABR® | eXp Realty Of Canada, Inc., Brokerage
This article was written before the October 28, 2026 announcement and is for general information only. It is not mortgage, financial, legal or tax advice. Rates, lender policies and market conditions change. Please speak with your lender or mortgage professional, lawyer or accountant about your own situation.
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