Foreign Buyer Ban Ending January 1, 2027? What It Means for GTA Prices
Canada's ban on most foreign buyers purchasing homes is scheduled to expire on January 1, 2027. Many buyers and sellers in the GTA are asking the same questions: will foreign money flood back in, will prices jump and should you act before the deadline? This post explains what the ban does, where things stand as of October 2026 and why the impact on GTA prices is likely to be smaller than the headlines suggest.
The short answer: The federal foreign buyer ban is set to end on January 1, 2027, and the government is reviewing what should replace it. Even if it ends, Ontario's 25% Non-Resident Speculation Tax still applies to most foreign buyers, and foreign buyers were a small share of the market before the ban. For most GTA buyers and sellers, interest rates, inventory and local demand will matter far more to prices than this change.
What the foreign buyer ban does
The Prohibition on the Purchase of Residential Property by Non-Canadians Act took effect on January 1, 2023. It was first set to last two years, and in February 2024 the federal government extended it to January 1, 2027. It stops most people who are not Canadian citizens or permanent residents from buying residential property in cities and larger towns, which includes the entire GTA.
Who can still buy under the ban:
- Canadian citizens and permanent residents, without restriction
- Many work permit holders, if they meet conditions such as having at least 183 days left on their permit
- Some international students who meet residency and tax-filing conditions
- Refugees and protected persons
- Non-Canadian spouses buying together with an eligible Canadian
Buyers who break the rules, and anyone who knowingly helps them, can face fines of up to $10,000, and a court can order the property sold.
Where things stand in October 2026
As of this writing, no further extension has been passed into law. Federal Housing Minister Gregor Robertson has confirmed a review of what should replace the ban and has pointed to Australia as one model. Australia's approach generally steers foreign buyers toward newly built homes rather than existing ones. Reports suggest Ottawa may favour a new framework rather than a simple extension, but nothing is final.
Rules can change quickly, so check the latest status before you make any decision based on the January 1, 2027 date.
Ontario's 25% tax still applies
This is the part many headlines miss. Ontario has its own Non-Resident Speculation Tax (NRST), separate from the federal ban. It has been 25% of the purchase price since October 25, 2022, applies across the whole province and is charged on top of regular land transfer tax.
On an $800,000 home, that is an extra $200,000 for a foreign buyer. The federal ban ending does not change this provincial tax. Some buyers are exempt, including Ontario Immigrant Nominee Program nominees, protected persons and some spouses of Canadians, and a rebate may be available to buyers who become permanent residents within four years. A real estate lawyer can confirm whether it applies to a specific purchase.
Will GTA prices go up?
A sudden price jump is unlikely, for three reasons:
- Foreign buyers were a small share of the market. Before the ban, Statistics Canada found that non-residents owned about 3.4% of residential properties in the Toronto area and about 7.2% of condo apartments (2017 data). Royal LePage has said the ban had "virtually no impact" on prices.
- The 25% NRST remains a major cost. Most foreign buyers would still face it on any GTA purchase.
- Local conditions drive prices. In September 2026, GTA sales were down 9% from a year earlier and the average price was $1,006,409, down 5.1%, according to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board. Interest rates, inventory and buyer confidence are doing most of the work right now.
If there is any effect, it is most likely to show up first in new and pre-construction condos, especially if a replacement policy channels foreign buyers toward new builds. In September 2026, the average GTA condo apartment sold for $605,257, down 7.7% from a year earlier, so even a modest return of investor demand could help that segment stabilize.
What it means for you
| If you are | What to keep in mind |
|---|---|
| A first-time buyer | Do not rush to beat a deadline that may not move prices. Focus on your budget, today's softer market and the rebates you qualify for. |
| A seller | Do not hold out for a wave of foreign buyers. Price your home for today's local buyers. |
| A pre-construction buyer or investor | Watch the replacement policy closely. New-build condos are where any change is most likely to show up first. |
| A newcomer to Canada | Permanent residents can already buy. Work permit holders should check both the federal rules and the NRST with a lawyer before making an offer. |
Learn more in my posts on buying your first home in Oakville as a newcomer, pre-construction vs ready-to-move homes and first-time buyer rebates in Ontario. For current prices, see my GTA market trends page.
Thinking of selling? Get a free home valuation. Buying? Request my Free Buyer's Guide.
Make your move based on facts, not headlines
I will walk you through what the latest policy changes and local numbers mean for your plans in Oakville, Mississauga, Milton and Burlington. No pressure and no obligation.
Book a Free ConsultationTarlika Sehgal, REALTOR®, SRS®, ABR® | eXp Realty Of Canada, Inc., Brokerage
Sources
- Canada's foreign buyer ban is expiring, Canadian Mortgage Professional, July 2026
- Foreign buyer ban Canada: what Ottawa's review means, August 2026
- Non-Resident Speculation Tax, Government of Ontario
- Ontario non-resident speculation tax, recent changes, PwC Canada
- Non-resident owned properties in Toronto, Statistics Canada
- TRREB Market Watch, September 2026
This article is general information, not legal, tax or immigration advice. Federal and provincial rules on foreign buyers can change at any time. Please confirm the current rules with a real estate lawyer before you buy or sell. Information is current as of October 2026.
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