Is Now a Good Time to Buy in the GTA? What the Fall 2026 Numbers Say

It is the question I hear more than any other this fall: "Should I buy now, or wait?" Headlines say sales are slow and prices are down, which leaves many buyers unsure whether this is an opportunity or a warning sign. Instead of guessing, let's look at what the latest numbers actually say about the GTA market and what they mean for your decision.

The fall 2026 numbers at a glance

Sources: TRREB Market Watch, September 2026, and the Bank of Canada's September 2, 2026 announcement. The next rate decision is scheduled for October 28, 2026.

Prices by home type

• Detached: $1,292,016, down 5.1%
• Semi-detached: $1,015,202, down 0.2%
• Townhouse: $820,637, down 4.6%
• Condo apartment: $605,257, down 7.7%

GTA West, September 2026 (all home types)

• Oakville: $1,365,169 average
• Burlington: $1,033,458 average
• Milton: $1,018,973 average
• Mississauga: $929,600 average

Why fall 2026 can work in a buyer's favour

1. Lower prices. The average GTA home costs about $54,000 less than it did a year ago, and condos are down even more.
2. More choice and less pressure. With 4.6 months of inventory and homes taking around a month to sell, you are less likely to face bidding wars and rushed decisions.
3. Room to protect yourself. In a calmer market, sellers are more likely to accept conditions such as financing and a home inspection.
4. Lower borrowing costs than the recent peak. The Bank of Canada's rate is less than half of where it was in 2023 and 2024, which has brought monthly payments down for many buyers.
5. Rebates and programs. First-time buyers can combine the land transfer tax refund, the FHSA and the Home Buyers' Plan, and new-home buyers may qualify for large HST rebates. See first-time buyer rebates in Ontario.

TRREB's Chief Information Officer, Jason Mercer, described "substantial pent-up demand in the GTA," with would-be buyers who "want to take advantage of today's more affordable housing market." When that demand returns, today's choice and negotiating room may not last.

The honest risks of buying now

• Prices could soften further. No one can predict the exact bottom. If you need to sell again within a year or two, a further dip could matter.
• Job and income security matter more than timing. Buy when your income feels stable, not because of a headline.
• Rates can change. The Bank of Canada meets again on October 28, 2026. Your mortgage professional can help you weigh fixed and variable options.
• Condos need extra care. With condo prices down the most, review the building's finances through the status certificate before you commit.

Are you ready to buy? A quick check

• ☐ You plan to stay in the home for at least five years
• ☐ You have a mortgage pre-approval, not just a rough estimate
• ☐ You have your down payment plus money for closing costs
• ☐ Your job and income feel stable
• ☐ You have an emergency fund left over after closing
• ☐ You know which neighbourhoods and home types fit your life

If you ticked most of these, this market may be a good fit for you. If not, use this time to get ready, so you can move with confidence when the right home appears.

Next steps: check your numbers with my home affordability calculator, read First-Time Home Buyers: Costs and Benefits, follow my detailed house-hunting checklist or explore the best family neighbourhoods in Oakville. For monthly updates, visit my GTA market trends page.

Tarlika Sehgal, REALTOR®, SRS®, ABR® | eXp Realty Of Canada, Inc., Brokerage

Sources

• TRREB Market Watch, September 2026
• Policy interest rate, Bank of Canada

This article is general information, not financial or mortgage advice. Market figures are GTA-wide averages and will differ by neighbourhood and property. Please speak with a mortgage professional about your situation. Information is current as of October 2026.